During periods of economic stress, the volatility and disruption that the capital and credit markets experience may reach, and have in the past reached, extreme levels. Market disruption may severely stress or even lead to the failure of financial institutions, which can cause further credit market constriction and further liquidation of assets, driving asset prices down even more. Asset price deterioration has a negative effect on the valuation of collateral and certain assets represented on our balance sheet and reduces our ability to sell assets at prices we deem acceptable.
The most recent recession in the U.S., resulting from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, did not have significant lasting impact on collateral value. However, there are still risks to economic stability that could reverse recent stable trends in asset prices.
These risks include, but are not limited to:
- A correction in equity or housing markets;
- Supply chain issues such as closed factories and disrupted port activity, as well as the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas war on global transportation and the availability of materials;
- Recessionary pressures on other major international economies, such as China, that may impact the broader global and our domestic economy;
- Labor-supply constraints, including as a result of potential changes to U.S. immigration policies and laws, leading to slowing job growth and rising wages along with inflation (wage-price spiral); and
- Negative real GDP growth, as a result of, in part, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy to arrest inflationary pressures within the broader economy.