Marathon Petroleum Corporation: 10-K Risk Factor Changes

Our operating results, cash flows, future rate of growth, the carrying value of our assets and our ability to execute share repurchases and continue the payment of our base dividend are highly dependent on the margins we realize on our refined products. Historically, refining and marketing margins have been volatile, and we believe they will continue to be volatile. Our margins from the sale of gasoline and other refined products are influenced by a number of conditions, including the price of crude oil and other feedstocks. The prices of feedstocks and the prices at which we can sell our refined products fluctuate independently due to a variety of regional and global market factors that are beyond our control, including: •worldwide and domestic supplies of and demand for feedstocks and refined products; •transportation infrastructure cost and availability; •operation levels of other refineries in our markets; •the development by competitors of new refining or renewable conversion capacity; •natural gas and electricity supply costs; •political instability, threatened or actual terrorist incidents, armed conflict or other global political or economic conditions; •tariffs on goods, including crude oil and other feedstocks, imported into the United States; •local weather conditions; and •the occurrence of other risks described herein. Some of these factors can vary by region and may change quickly, adding to market volatility, while others may have longer-term effects. The longer-term effects of these and other factors on refining and marketing margins are uncertain. We generally purchase our feedstocks weeks before we refine them and sell the refined products. Price level changes during the period between purchasing feedstocks and selling the refined products from these feedstocks can have a significant effect on our financial results. We also purchase refined products manufactured by others for resale to our customers. Price changes during the periods between purchasing and reselling those refined products can have a material and adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows. In early 2025, the new U.S. presidential administration announced broad-based tariffs on goods imported from certain countries where we purchase feedstocks, including a ten percent tariff on energy resources such as crude oil, natural gas and NGLs imported from Canada. Some of these tariffs have been stayed for brief periods of at least 30 days. If the provisions of those tariffs are maintained as proposed, we would expect added market volatility, with the longer term impacts to our refining and marketing margin uncertain. In addition, retaliatory tariffs imposed by other countries or other potential government actions, would likely result in further adverse impacts. Lower refining and marketing margins have in the past, and may in the future, lead us to reduce the amount of refined products we produce, which may reduce our revenues, income from operations and cash flows. Significant reductions in refining and marketing margins could require us to reduce our capital expenditures, impair the carrying value of our assets (such as property, plant and equipment, inventory or goodwill), and require us to re-evaluate practices regarding our repurchase activity and dividends.

Our operating results, cash flows, future rate of growth, the carrying value of our assets and our ability to execute share repurchases and continue the payment of our base dividend are highly dependent on the margins we realize on our refined products. Historically, refining and marketing margins have been volatile, and we believe they will continue to be volatile. Our margins from the sale of gasoline and other refined products are influenced by a number of conditions, including the price of crude oil and other feedstocks. The prices of feedstocks and the prices at which we can sell our refined products fluctuate independently due to a variety of regional and global market factors that are beyond our control, including: •worldwide and domestic supplies of and demand for feedstocks and refined products; •transportation infrastructure cost and availability; •operation levels of other refineries in our markets; •the development by competitors of new refining or renewable conversion capacity; •natural gas and electricity supply costs; •political instability, threatened or actual terrorist incidents, armed conflict or other global political or economic conditions; •local weather conditions; and •the occurrence of other risks described herein. Some of these factors can vary by region and may change quickly, adding to market volatility, while others may have longer-term effects. The longer-term effects of these and other factors on refining and marketing margins are uncertain. We generally 17 17 17 Table of Contents Table of Contents purchase our feedstocks weeks before we refine them and sell the refined products. Price level changes during the period between purchasing feedstocks and selling the refined products from these feedstocks can have a significant effect on our financial results. We also purchase refined products manufactured by others for resale to our customers. Price changes during the periods between purchasing and reselling those refined products can have a material and adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows. Lower refining and marketing margins have in the past, and may in the future, lead us to reduce the amount of refined products we produce, which may reduce our revenues, income from operations and cash flows. Significant reductions in refining and marketing margins could require us to reduce our capital expenditures, impair the carrying value of our assets (such as property, plant and equipment, inventory or goodwill), and require us to re-evaluate practices regarding our repurchase activity and dividends.

Increases in inflation may have an adverse effect on us. Such increases in inflation could impact the commodity markets generally, the overall demand for our products and services, our costs for labor, material and services and the margins we are able to realize on our products, all of which could have an adverse impact on our business, financial position, results of operations and cash flows. Inflation may also result in higher interest rates, which in turn would result in higher interest expense related to our variable rate indebtedness and any borrowings we undertake to refinance existing fixed rate indebtedness.

Increases in inflation may have an adverse effect on us. Current and future inflationary effects may be driven by, among other things, supply chain disruptions and governmental stimulus or fiscal policies. Continuing increases in inflation could impact the commodity markets generally, the overall demand for our products and services, our costs for labor, material and services and the margins we are able to realize on our products, all of which could have an adverse impact on our business, financial position, 19 19 19 Table of Contents Table of Contents results of operations and cash flows. Inflation may also result in higher interest rates, which in turn would result in higher interest expense related to our variable rate indebtedness and any borrowings we undertake to refinance existing fixed rate indebtedness.

Approximately 3,800 of our employees are covered by collective bargaining agreements with expiration dates ranging from 2026 to 2031. These agreements may be renewed at an increased cost to us. In addition, we have experienced in the past, and may experience in the future, work stoppages as a result of labor disagreements. Any prolonged work stoppages disrupting operations could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows. In addition, some states in which we operate require refinery owners to pay prevailing wages to contract craft workers and restrict refiners’ ability to hire qualified employees to a limited pool of applicants. Legislation or changes in regulations could result in labor shortages, higher labor costs, and an increased risk that contract workers become joint employees, which could trigger bargaining issues, and wage and benefit consequences, especially during critical maintenance and construction periods.

Approximately 3,800 of our employees are covered by collective bargaining agreements with expiration dates ranging from 2024 to 2027. These agreements may be renewed at an increased cost to us. In addition, we have experienced in the past, and may experience in the future, work stoppages as a result of labor disagreements. Any prolonged work stoppages disrupting operations could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows. In 2024, there are two collective bargaining agreements, one expired on January 31 and the other will expire on April 7. These two agreements cover approximately 500 employees in refining. The parties to the expired agreement continue operating under the relevant terms of the expired agreement while negotiating a successor agreement. In the event of a work stoppage impacting operations, we have a contingency plan in place to continue operations. In addition, some states in which we operate require refinery owners to pay prevailing wages to contract craft workers and restrict refiners’ ability to hire qualified employees to a limited pool of applicants. Legislation or changes in regulations could result in labor shortages, higher labor costs, and an increased risk that contract workers become joint employees, which could trigger bargaining issues, and wage and benefit consequences, especially during critical maintenance and construction periods.

In June 2023, the provisions of California’s Senate Bill No. 2 (such statute, together with any regulations contemplated or issued thereunder, “SB X1-2”) became effective, which, among other things, (i) authorized the establishment of a maximum gross gasoline refining margin and the imposition of a financial penalty for profits above a maximum gross gasoline refining margin, (ii) significantly expanded the reporting obligations (e.g., daily, weekly, monthly, and annually reporting of detailed operational and financial data on all aspects of our operations in California) to the California Energy Commission (“CEC”) for all participants in the petroleum industry supply chain in California, (iii) created the Division of Petroleum Market Oversight within the CEC to monitor and analyze the transportation fuels market, including the data provided under SB X1-2, and (iv) authorized the CEC to regulate the timing and other aspects of refinery turnaround and maintenance activities in certain instances. The operational data reporting includes our plans for turnaround and maintenance activities at our Los Angeles refinery and Martinez renewable diesel facility and our plans to address potential impacts on feedstock and product inventories in California resulting from such turnaround and maintenance activities. In late 2023, the CEC adopted (i) an order requiring an informational proceeding on a maximum gross gasoline refining margin and penalty under SB X1-2, and (ii) an order initiating rulemaking activity under SB X1-2 that will be focused on refinery maintenance and turnarounds. In October 2024, California’s governor signed Assembly Bill No.1 (such statute, together with any regulations contemplated or issued thereunder, “AB X2-1”), into law, authorizing the CEC to require that petroleum refiners maintain a minimum inventory of transportation fuels including the requirement that petroleum refiners plan for resupply during scheduled maintenance. To the extent that the CEC establishes a maximum gross gasoline refining margin and imposes a financial penalty for profits above such maximum gross gasoline refining margin or requires that petroleum refiners maintain a minimum inventory of transportation fuels, our financial results and profitability could be adversely affected. Our results of operations, financial 27 27 27 Table of Contents Table of Contents performance and safety and maintenance efforts could also be adversely impacted to the extent that restrictions on turnaround and maintenance activities are imposed by the CEC. We cannot reasonably predict the impact that full implementation of SB X1-2 or AB X2-1 will have on our California operations or our company nor can we predict the impact from similarly focused legislation or actions in other jurisdictions in which we operate our refineries. The recently adopted legislation in California, and the future enactment of similar legislation in any of the other jurisdictions, could adversely impact our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.

In June 2023, the provisions of California’s Senate Bill No. 2 (such statute, together with any regulations contemplated or issued thereunder, “SBx 1-2”) became effective, which, among other things, (i) authorized the establishment of a maximum gross gasoline refining margin and the imposition of a financial penalty for profits above a maximum gross gasoline refining margin, (ii) significantly expanded the reporting obligations (e.g., daily, weekly, monthly, and annually reporting of detailed operational and financial data on all aspects of our operations in California) to the California Energy Commission (“CEC”) for all participants in the petroleum industry supply chain in California, (iii) created the Division of Petroleum Market Oversight within the CEC to analyze the data provided under SBx 1-2, and (iv) authorized the CEC to regulate the timing and other aspects of refinery turnaround and maintenance activities in certain instances. The operational data reporting includes our plans for turnaround and maintenance activities at our Los Angeles refinery and Martinez renewable fuels facility and our plans to address potential impacts on feedstock and product inventories in California resulting from such turnaround and maintenance activities. In late 2023, the CEC adopted (i) an order requiring an informational proceeding on a maximum gross gasoline refining margin and penalty under SBx 1-2, and (ii) an order initiating rulemaking activity under SBx 1-2 that will be focused on refinery maintenance and turnarounds. To the extent that the CEC establishes a maximum gross gasoline refining margin and imposes a financial penalty for profits above such maximum gross gasoline refining margin, our financial results and profitability could be adversely affected. Our results of operations, financial performance and safety and maintenance efforts could also be adversely impacted to the extent that restrictions on turnaround and maintenance activities are imposed by the CEC. We cannot reasonably predict the impact that full implementation of SBx 1-2 will have on our California operations or our company nor can we predict the impact from similarly focused legislation or actions in other jurisdictions in which we operate our refineries. The recently adopted legislation in California, and the future enactment of similar legislation in any of the other jurisdictions, could adversely impact our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.

Currently, multiple legislative and regulatory measures to address GHG (including carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxides) and other emissions are in various phases of consideration, promulgation or implementation. These include actions to develop international, federal, regional or statewide programs, which could require reductions in our GHG or other emissions, establish a carbon tax and decrease the demand for refined products. Requiring reductions in these emissions could result in increased costs to (i) operate and maintain our facilities, (ii) install new emission controls at our facilities and (iii) administer and manage any emissions programs, including acquiring emission credits or allotments. For example, California and Washington have enacted cap-and-trade programs and low carbon fuel standards. Other states are proposing, or have already promulgated, low carbon fuel standards or similar initiatives to reduce emissions from the transportation sector. If we are unable to pass the costs of compliance on to our customers, sufficient credits are unavailable for purchase, we have to pay a significantly higher price for credits, or if we are otherwise unable to meet our compliance obligation, our financial condition and results of operations could be adversely affected. Certain municipalities have also proposed or enacted restrictions on the installation of natural gas appliances and infrastructure in new residential or commercial construction, which could affect demand for the natural gas that MPLX transports and stores. New York and Vermont have enacted, and other states are considering, laws that would allow the state to seek climate change-related damages from fossil fuel companies allocated based on each company’s share of past GHG emissions. The legality of 25 25 25 Table of Contents Table of Contents these bills is being challenged in court. Our potential share is dependent on multiple factors, including the number of responsible parties and GHG emission calculation methodologies, and cannot be estimated at this time. Regional and state climate change and air emissions goals and regulatory programs are complex, subject to change and considerable uncertainty due to a number of factors including technological feasibility, legal challenges and potential changes in federal policy. Increasing concerns about climate change and carbon intensity have also resulted in societal concerns and a number of international and national measures to limit GHG emissions. Additional stricter measures and investor pressure can be expected in the future and any of these changes may have a material adverse impact on our business or financial condition. The scope and magnitude of the changes to U.S. climate change strategy under the current and future administrations, however, remain subject to the passage of legislation and interpretation and action of federal and state regulatory bodies; therefore, the impact to our industry and operations due to GHG regulation is unknown at this time.

Currently, multiple legislative and regulatory measures to address GHG (including carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxides) and other emissions are in various phases of consideration, promulgation or implementation. These include actions to develop international, federal, regional or statewide programs, which could require reductions in our GHG or other emissions, establish a carbon tax and decrease the demand for refined products. Requiring reductions in these emissions could result in increased costs to (i) operate and maintain our facilities, (ii) install new emission controls at our facilities and (iii) administer and manage any emissions programs, including acquiring emission credits or allotments. For example, California and Washington have enacted cap-and-trade programs. Other states are proposing, or have already promulgated, low carbon fuel standards or similar initiatives to reduce emissions from the transportation sector. If we are unable to pass the costs of compliance on to our customers, sufficient credits are unavailable for purchase, we have to pay a significantly higher price for credits, or if we are otherwise unable to meet our compliance obligation, our financial condition and results of operations could be adversely affected. Certain municipalities have also proposed or enacted restrictions on the installation of natural gas appliances and infrastructure in new residential or commercial construction, which could affect demand for the natural gas that MPLX transports and stores. Regional and state climate change and air emissions goals and regulatory programs are complex, subject to change and considerable uncertainty due to a number of factors including technological feasibility, legal challenges and potential changes in federal policy. Increasing concerns about climate change and carbon intensity have also resulted in societal concerns and a number of international and national measures to limit GHG emissions. Additional stricter measures and investor pressure can be expected in the future and any of these changes may have a material adverse impact on our business or financial condition. International climate change-related efforts, such as the 2015 United Nations Conference on Climate Change, which led to the creation of the Paris Agreement, may impact the regulatory framework of states whose policies directly influence our present and future operations. In the United States, an Executive Order issued on January 27, 2021, announced putting the U.S. on a path to achieve net-zero carbon emissions, economy-wide, by 2050. The Executive Order also calls for the federal government to pause oil and gas leasing on federal lands and reduce methane emissions from the oil and gas sector as quickly as possible, and requires federal permitting decisions to consider the effects of GHG emissions and climate change. In December 2023, EPA completed one provision of the order by promulgating a final rule to reduce methane and volatile organic compounds from oil and gas operations. Concurrently, EPA significantly increased the social cost of greenhouse gases. A higher social cost of greenhouse gases could support more stringent GHG emission regulation. The scope and magnitude of the changes to U.S. climate change strategy under the current and future administrations, however, remain subject to the passage of legislation and interpretation and action of federal and state regulatory bodies; therefore, the impact to our industry and operations due to GHG regulation is unknown at this time.

Developments aimed at reducing vehicle emissions, increasing vehicle efficiency or reducing the sale of new internal combustion engine vehicles may decrease the demand and may increase the cost for our transportation fuels. EPA and NHTSA have promulgated separate rules setting more stringent requirements for vehicles. NHTSA’s current CAFE standards increase in stringency from model year 2023 levels by eight percent annually for model years 2024-2025 and ten percent annually for model year 2026. EPA’s model year 2023-2026 CO2 emission standards result in average fuel economy of 40 mpg in model year 2026. In addition, NHTSA and EPA finalized new rules setting even more stringent requirements for model years 2027-2032. NHTSA’s standards would require an increase in fuel efficiency of two percent annually. EPA’s standards would require a significant increase in electric vehicle production to meet the standards. In addition, California and several states have adopted regulations that require increased sales of electric vehicles. California, in particular, has passed several regulations mandating electric vehicles. These regulations include Advanced Clean Cars (“ACC”) 18 18 18 Table of Contents Table of Contents I, ACC II, and Advanced Clean Trucks. California has received Clean Air Act waivers from U.S. EPA to implement these programs. Moreover, consumer acceptance and market penetration of electric, hybrid and alternative fuel vehicles continues to increase. In 2021, several automobile manufacturers jointly announced their shared goal that 40-50 percent of their new vehicle sales be battery electric, fuel cell or plug-in hybrid vehicles by 2030. Other automobile manufacturers have similar, or more aggressive, goals with respect to vehicle electrification. Technological breakthroughs relating to renewable fuels or other fuel alternatives such as hydrogen or ammonia, or efficiency improvements for internal combustion engines could reduce demand for liquid transportation fuels. Together, these trends and developments have had and are expected to continue to have an adverse effect on sales of our liquid transportation fuels, which in turn could have a material and adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.

Developments aimed at reducing vehicle emissions, increasing vehicle efficiency or reducing the sale of new petroleum-fueled vehicles may decrease the demand and may increase the cost for our transportation fuels. An Executive Order issued on August 5, 2021, set a goal that 50 percent of all new passenger cars and light trucks sold in 2030 be zero emission vehicles. Consistent with this order, EPA and NHTSA have promulgated separate rules setting more stringent requirements for reductions through model year 2026. NHTSA’s amended CAFE standards increase in stringency from model year 2023 levels by eight percent annually for model years 2024-2025 and ten percent annually for model year 2026. EPA’s revised model year 2023-2026 CO2 emission standards, which were finalized in December 2021, result in average fuel economy of 40 mpg in model year 2026. Other jurisdictions have issued or considered issuing similar mandates, and we expect this trend will continue. Moreover, consumer acceptance and market penetration of electric, hybrid and alternative fuel vehicles continues to increase. In 2021, several automobile manufacturers jointly announced their shared goal that 40-50 percent of their new vehicle sales be battery electric, fuel cell or plug-in hybrid vehicles by 2030. Other automobile manufacturers have similar, or more aggressive, goals with respect to vehicle electrification. Technological breakthroughs relating to renewable fuels or other fuel alternatives such as hydrogen or ammonia, or efficiency improvements for internal combustion engines could reduce demand for petroleum-based transportation fuels. Together, these trends and developments have had and are expected to continue to have an adverse effect on sales of our petroleum-based transportation fuels, which in turn could have a material and adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.

Congress established a Renewable Fuel Standard (“RFS”) program that requires annual volumes of renewable fuel be blended into domestic transportation fuel. As a producer of petroleum-based motor fuels, we are obligated to blend renewable fuels into the products we produce at a rate that is at least commensurate to EPA’s quota and, to the extent we do not, we must purchase RINs in the open market to satisfy our obligation under the RFS program. Additionally, states, including California, have adopted or are considering adopting LCFS programs, which include the generation and purchase of LCFS credits for compliance. We are exposed to the volatility in the market price of RINs, LCFS credits, and other credits for low carbon fuels and we cannot predict the future prices of RINs, LCFS, or other credits. Prices are dependent upon a variety of factors, including EPA, LCFS, and other regulations, reduction of the benefits, the availability of RINs or credits for purchase, any of the products we produce are deemed not to qualify for compliance, and levels of transportation fuels produced, which can vary significantly from quarter to quarter. There is currently no regulatory method for verifying the validity of most RINs sold on the open market. We have developed a RIN integrity program to vet the RINs that we purchase, and we incur costs to audit RIN generators. Nevertheless, if any of the RINs that we purchase and use for compliance are found to be invalid, we could incur costs and penalties for replacing the invalid RINs. See Item 1. Business – Regulatory Matters for additional information on these and other regulatory compliance matters.

Pursuant to the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and the EISA, Congress established a Renewable Fuel Standard (“RFS”) program that requires annual volumes of renewable fuel be blended into domestic transportation fuel. A RIN is assigned to each gallon of renewable fuel produced in, or imported into, the United States. As a producer of petroleum-based motor fuels, we are obligated to blend renewable fuels into the products we produce at a rate that is at least commensurate to EPA’s quota and, to the extent we do not, we must purchase RINs in the open market to satisfy our obligation under the RFS program. We are exposed to the volatility in the market price of RINs. We cannot predict the future prices of RINs. RINs prices are dependent upon a variety of factors, including EPA regulations, the availability of RINs for purchase, and levels of transportation fuels produced, which can vary significantly from quarter to quarter. There is currently no regulatory method for verifying the validity of most RINs sold on the open market. We have developed a RIN integrity program to vet the RINs that we purchase, and we incur costs to audit RIN generators. Nevertheless, if any of the RINs that we purchase and use for compliance are found to be invalid, we could incur costs and penalties for replacing the invalid RINs. See Item 1. Business – Regulatory Matters for additional information on these and other regulatory compliance matters.

Our business is subject to numerous environmental laws and regulations. These laws and regulations continue to increase in both number and complexity and affect our business. Laws and regulations expected to become more stringent relate to the following: •the emission or discharge of materials into the environment; •solid and hazardous waste management; 24 24 24 Table of Contents Table of Contents •the regulatory classification of materials currently or formerly used in our business; •pollution prevention; •climate change and GHG emissions; •characteristics and composition of transportation fuels, including the quantity of renewable fuels that must be blended into transportation fuels; •the production, importation, use, and disposal of specific chemicals; •public and employee safety and health; •permitting; •inherently safer technology; and •facility security. The specific impact of laws and regulations on us and our competitors may vary depending on a number of factors, including the age and location of operating facilities, marketing areas, crude oil and feedstock sources, production processes and subsequent judicial interpretation of such laws and regulations. We have incurred and will continue to incur substantial capital, operating and maintenance, and remediation expenditures to modify operations, install pollution control equipment, perform site cleanups or curtail operations. We have incurred and may in the future incur liability for personal injury, property damage, natural resource damage or clean-up costs due to alleged contamination and/or exposure to chemicals such as benzene and methyl tert-butyl ether (“MTBE”). There is also increased regulatory interest in PFAS, which we expect will lead to increased monitoring and remediation obligations and potential liability related thereto. Such expenditures could materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows. In early 2025, the new U.S. presidential administration announced wide-ranging policy changes and issued numerous executive actions on topics including international trade, energy resources, corporate taxes, global climate change initiatives, employment practices, corporate compliance programs, environmental regulations, as well as other matters. Further, the new presidential administration has indicated an intent to make structural changes to the executive branch of the federal government, including significant reductions in the federal workforce. Continuing legal challenges to many of the policy changes and executive actions are expected. Such actions may directly or indirectly impact our industry and could lead to increased regulatory uncertainty and volatility. We cannot predict how these policy changes and executive actions will be implemented and interpreted, or the ultimate effect they will have on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Our business is subject to numerous environmental laws and regulations. These laws and regulations continue to increase in both number and complexity and affect our business. Laws and regulations expected to become more stringent relate to the following: •the emission or discharge of materials into the environment; •solid and hazardous waste management; •the regulatory classification of materials currently or formerly used in our business; •pollution prevention; •climate change and GHG emissions; •characteristics and composition of transportation fuels, including the quantity of renewable fuels that must be blended into transportation fuels; •public and employee safety and health; •permitting; •inherently safer technology; and •facility security. The specific impact of laws and regulations on us and our competitors may vary depending on a number of factors, including the age and location of operating facilities, marketing areas, crude oil and feedstock sources, production processes and subsequent judicial interpretation of such laws and regulations. We have incurred and will continue to incur substantial capital, operating and maintenance, and remediation expenditures to modify operations, install pollution control equipment, perform site cleanups or curtail operations. We have incurred and may in the future incur liability for personal injury, property damage, natural resource damage or clean-up costs due to alleged contamination and/or exposure to chemicals such as benzene and MTBE. There is also 23 23 23 Table of Contents Table of Contents increased regulatory interest in PFAS, which we expect will lead to increased monitoring and remediation obligations and potential liability related thereto. Such expenditures could materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.