Progressive Corporation: 10-K Risk Factor Changes

Our investment portfolio, which had a fair value of $66.0 billion at December 31, 2023, compared to $53.5 billion at December 31, 2022, consists of fixed-maturity securities, short-term investments, and equity securities (nonredeemable preferred stocks and common equity securities). Our fixed-maturity securities, short-term investments, and nonredeemable preferred stocks are collectively referred to as fixed-income securities. Our principal investment goals are to manage our portfolio on a total return basis to support all of the insurance premiums that we can profitably write and contribute to our comprehensive income. In our actively managed fixed-income securities portfolio, we believe that, in addition to many traditional considerations of fixed-income investing, there is less risk in securities that score higher across various environmental, social, and governance factors. Therefore, we consider these assessments when evaluating these investment decisions. Our portfolio is invested primarily in short-term and intermediate-term, investment-grade fixed-income securities. Investment income is affected by the variability of cash flows to or from the portfolio, shifts in the type and quality of investments in the portfolio, changes in yield, and other factors. For securities related to our investment portfolios, total investment income includes interest, dividends, accretion, amortization, net realized gains (losses) on securities sold, and net holding period gains (losses) on securities (composed primarily of valuation changes on equity securities). Total investment income, before expenses and taxes, was $2.3 billion in 2023, compared to an investment loss of $0.7 billion in 2022, and investment income of $2.4 billion in 2021. On a pretax total return basis (i.e., total investment income plus changes in net unrealized gains (losses) on our fixed-maturity securities), our investment portfolio generated investment income of $3.8 billion in 2023, compared to an investment loss of $4.3 billion in 2022 and investment income of $1.2 billion in 2021. Outside of our investment portfolio, but reported in impairment losses in the consolidated statements of comprehensive income, were $9.0 million, $8.6 million, and $5.0 million of other-than-temporary impairment losses resulting from tax credit investments during 2023, 2022, and 2021, respectively. For more detailed discussion of our investment portfolio, see Note 2 – Investments, Note 3 – Fair Value, and Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations in the Annual Report.

Our service businesses, which represented less than 1% of our total revenues at December 31, 2023, 2022, and 2021, and did not have a material effect on our overall operations, primarily include our commission- or fee-based businesses, where we often act as an agent for other insurance companies. We offer home, condominium, and renters insurance, among other products, written by unaffiliated insurance companies in almost all states in the direct channel. We also offer our customers the ability to package their commercial auto coverage with other commercial coverages that are written by unaffiliated insurance companies. We receive commissions for the policies written under this program and allocate marketing and other administration costs associated with maintaining these programs. Prior to the expiration of our Commercial Automobile Insurance Procedures/Plans (CAIP) service contract in August 2022, we acted as a servicing carrier, on a nationwide basis, for the CAIP plans, which are state-supervised plans servicing the involuntary market in nearly all states. The expiration of our participation as a CAIP service provider did not materially affect our financial condition, results of operations, or cash flows.

The consolidated financial statements include the estimated liability for unpaid losses and LAE, which include ALAE (e.g., defense and cost containment expenses) and unallocated LAE (e.g., adjusting and other expenses), of our insurance subsidiaries. Our objective is to ensure that total reserves (i.e., case reserves and incurred but not recorded reserves, or IBNR) are adequate to cover all loss costs, while sustaining minimal variation from the time reserves are initially established until losses are fully developed. The liabilities for losses and LAE are determined using actuarial and statistical procedures and represent undiscounted estimates of the ultimate net cost of all unpaid losses and LAE incurred through December 31 of each year. These estimates are subject to the effect of future trends on claims settlement, among other factors. These estimates are regularly reviewed and adjusted as experience develops and new information becomes known. Adjustments, if any, relating to accidents that occurred in prior years are reflected in the current year results of operations and are referred to as “development” of the prior year estimates. In establishing loss reserves, we take into account projected changes in claim severity caused by a number of factors that vary with the individual type of policy written. This severity is projected based on historical trends, adjusted for anticipated changes in underwriting standards, inflation, policy provisions, claims resolution practices, and general economic trends. These anticipated trends are reconsidered periodically based on actual development and are modified if necessary. See Note 6 – Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves in our Annual Report for a detailed discussion of our loss reserving practices and a reconciliation of our loss and LAE reserve activity, along with incurred and paid claims development by accident year for our segments, based on definitions pursuant to statutory accounting principles. - 9 - - 9 - - 9 - - 9 - - 9 - - 9 -

We believe that our people and our culture remain our most significant competitive advantage, and that having the right people working together in the right way is critical to driving our results, building our enduring business, and creating long-term shareholder value. Our culture is deeply rooted in our Core Values (Integrity, Golden Rule, Excellence, Objectives, and Profit) and is the foundation for our human capital management strategies to attract, retain, engage, and motivate highly qualified employees. Our People We believe that our culture and continued success has enabled us to create a workplace comprised of highly talented people across diverse markets and with a broad range of backgrounds and experiences. Attract and Hire We employ extensive recruiting practices with the goal of developing qualified and deep candidate pools and attracting candidates from both established and new sources. We believe that our recruitment efforts generally have enabled us to present diverse and high-potential pools of job candidates to our hiring managers. In turn, we train our hiring managers about identifying and avoiding unconscious biases they may have during the interview and selection process and the importance of employing individuals with different kinds of experiences and backgrounds. We believe these strategies collectively enhance our applicant pools and contribute to our continued success. Engage and Retain We understand that engaged employees are more productive, provide better service to our customers, and are more likely to stay with Progressive. Each year, we survey our people to measure their engagement. Our 2023 engagement and culture survey results placed us in the top 5% of all companies using the survey, which is designed by a nationally-known third party and administered in like form to over 1,000 employers in the United States. We use the results, along with other information, to evaluate our human capital strategies and the health of our culture. Employee retention is an important part of our strategy. Our annualized employee retention rate for 2023 was 86%, up three points from the prior year, and, as of December 31, 2023, more than 16,000 employees had over 10 years of tenure at the company. Promoting from within is also a key part of our strategy. Many of our leaders, including nearly all of the executive team members, joined Progressive in a more junior position and advanced to significant leadership positions within the organization. In 2023, we filled over 70% of our open positions above entry level by promoting from within, including just over 2,200 managerial positions. Demographic Data We publish employee and manager demographic information on our diversity and inclusion website and update this data on an annual basis. We also disclose our consolidated EEO-1 data online. •As of December 31, 2023, we had about 61,400 employees of whom 60% were women and 41% were people of color, while women comprised 51% and people of color comprised 39% of the U.S. workforce (based on data obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey, November 2023). •During 2023, we hired more than 14,600 new employees of whom 67% were women and 56% were people of color, representing about 1.7% of the total applicants for a job at Progressive. •During 2023, of our employees promoted into management positions, 55% were women and 32% were people of color. As of December 31, 2023, women represented 49% of all managers and people of color were 26% of all managers. •As of December 31, 2023, we had about 1,100 senior leaders of whom 40% were women and 18% were people of color. Supporting our People and Culture We strive to support our employees by providing challenging work experiences, career opportunities, and a culture of learning. We are focused on coaching and development, which we believe promotes greater engagement in our business and improved individual performance. Training and Development We actively foster a learning culture and offer several leadership development programs, including our Multicultural Leadership Development Program. Two of our career development boot camps (IT Programmer and Analyst) are intended to accelerate career opportunities. Moreover, our professional development program, “Career Central,” encourages employees to take control of their career through team-building exercises, coaching techniques, and communication strategies. Available to new and tenured employees, our learning solutions are tailored to both individual contributors and leaders and cover a broad - 10 - - 10 - - 10 - - 10 - - 10 - - 10 - swath of skills and competencies. We also leverage our extensive contemporary art collection to offer training sessions to spark conversations about our culture, innovation, ethical obligations, and respecting our differences, among other things. Ethics Our Core Values are the foundation for our Code of Business Conduct and Ethics, which provides clear expectations for all our people and confirms our commitment to high ethical standards and compliance with legal requirements. We provide ethics training, as well as regular communications, video series, and outside speakers presenting themes such as Celebrate Disagreement, Core Conversations, and Courage at our Core, to emphasize our commitment to our ethical and legal responsibilities. Additionally, we have an “open door” policy that empowers every employee to reach out to any manager or any human resource representative when they have a question or concern or they want to share an idea. We also provide a confidential Alertline that is available for employees and others who want to raise a concern anonymously. We encourage our people to speak up, and when they do, we give timely attention to their concerns, take remedial action where appropriate, and do not discriminate or retaliate against them for reporting any concern to us in good faith. Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) We believe that in order to be consumers’, agents’, and business owners’ number one destination for insurance and other financial needs, we need to anticipate and understand the needs of our customers. Therefore, we seek to be diverse in our employee demographics, experiences, and perspectives. Our commitment to diversity starts at the top with our highly skilled and diverse Board of Directors. We are one of the few public companies with a female CEO, as well as a female independent Board Chairperson. Our DEI efforts are overseen by our Compensation Committee on behalf of the entire Board of Directors, and those efforts are implemented at all levels of the organization. For Progressive, DEI is not just a program, initiative, or singular goal. We take a holistic approach to DEI guided by four primary objectives, which have been in place for several years: (1) to maintain a fair and inclusive work environment; (2) to reflect the customers we serve; (3) for our leaders to reflect the people they lead; and (4) to contribute to our communities. A few years ago, for instance, we introduced an ambitious aspiration to double the representation of people of color in senior leadership from 10% to 20% by the end of 2025. We set this aspiration to challenge ourselves to reach far and wide to attract diverse, highly qualified applicant pools when recruiting opportunities arose, to invest broadly in developing our internal talent, and to help measure the success of these efforts. During 2023, representation of people of color in senior leadership increased from 17% to 18%. We're committed to creating an environment where all our people feel welcomed, valued, and respected, and we integrate DEI into our workplace. We support DEI awareness among our employees through formal training sessions and workshops focused on building our overall awareness and individual competencies to address difficult topics such as racial inequality, micro-inequities, and unconscious biases. This includes hosting regular Inclusion Quarterly events, which feature a series of speakers, discussion groups, and storytelling focused on themes of diversity, equity, and inclusion. We also have a companywide Courageous Conversations and DEI speakers bureau, where presenters and facilitators lead work teams in discussions around biases, stereotypes, and the development of inclusive behaviors. Additionally, we have DEI leadership job objectives for our executive team and managers aimed at fostering a diverse and inclusive workplace. Moreover, we support efforts to contribute to our communities, through our Keys to Progress® programs (which include providing vehicles to veterans and furnishing homes for individuals emerging from homelessness), our various education and engagement efforts, and our financial contributions to various community organizations. For over 20 years, we have also contributed to The Progressive Insurance Foundation, which provided matching funds to eligible 501(c)(3) charitable organizations to which employees contributed. To more broadly represent our employees and their communities, in 2020, The Progressive Insurance Foundation began funding national charitable organizations identified by our Employee Resource Groups. Beginning mid-2022, in lieu of matching funds, each employee can recommend an eligible charity to receive a fixed amount of the Foundation’s charitable giving without requiring the employee make an out-of-pocket donation. We know we still have much more work to do, but we are committed to these efforts. To learn more, please visit our DEI website at: progressive.com/about/diversity-and-inclusion. The information on that website is not incorporated by reference in, and does not form part of, this Form 10-K or any other SEC filing. Employee Resource Groups Over a decade ago, our first Employee Resource Groups (ERG) were created to help build communities for our employees with common backgrounds, life experiences, interests or professional goals. We have nine employee resource groups (Progressive African American Network, Asian American Network, Disabilities Awareness Network, Progressive Latin American Networking Association, LGBTQ+ Network, Military Network, Network for Empowering Women, Parent Connection, and Young Professionals Network) that support creation of a space for networking, understanding differences, and sharing experiences. In the time since their inception, our ERGs have grown in both influence and size with 44% of Progressive people belonging to at least one ERG as of December 31, 2023. - 11 - - 11 - - 11 - - 11 - - 11 - - 11 - Compensation and Benefits We seek to provide competitive pay through a combination of fixed and variable compensation and have designed our compensation programs for employees to earn above market pay when company performance warrants it. We publish, internally, our competitive annualized base pay ranges and annual cash incentive targets for virtually all of our positions. As part of employee compensation, nearly all Progressive people participate in our annual cash incentive program named Gainshare, which measures the growth and profitability of our insurance businesses. We believe Gainshare contributes to the cooperative and collaborative way we work together and, in part, defines our culture. Our executives and other senior leaders also receive compensation in the form of equity awards, which we believe supports a strong pay-for-performance linkage and further aligns their interests with those of our shareholders. We monitor overall pay equity among employees with similar performance, experience, and job responsibilities, and publish the results annually on our DEI website. Our employee benefits are intended to be competitive and to support the needs of our people and their families. We invest in physical, emotional, and financial health of Progressive people by providing a broad range of benefits, including: medical, prescription drug, dental, and vision benefits; a 401(k) plan with up to a 6% company match; life insurance; long- and short-term disability insurance; and paid parental leave following birth, adoption, or placement of a foster child. Our health and wellness offerings include on-site fitness centers, medical clinics, and health seminars. Many of these on-site offerings transitioned to online offerings, such as fitness classes and health discussions, to meet the needs of our employees who are working remotely. We continue to offer a variety of health and wellness programs accessible to employees working from the office or remotely. We also offer an Employee Assistance Program that provides 24-hour support, flexible work arrangements, and provide paid time off to help our people balance their work and personal lives.

Our website is located at progressive.com. Except as expressly noted herein, the information on this website is not incorporated by reference in, and does not form part of, this Form 10-K. As soon as reasonably practicable, we make all documents that we file with, or furnish to, the SEC, including our annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, current reports on Form 8-K, and any amendments to these reports, available free of charge via our website at progressive.com/investors. These reports are also available on the SEC’s website: http://www.sec.gov. Information on our website does not constitute soliciting material and should not be deemed filed or incorporated by reference into any other Progressive filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, except to the extent we specifically incorporate such information by reference in such a filing. - 12 - - 12 - - 12 - - 12 - - 12 - - 12 - ITEM 1A. RISK FACTORS I. Summary Our business involves various risks and uncertainties, certain of which are discussed in this section. Management divides these risks into five broad categories in assessing how they may affect our financial condition, cash flows, and results of operations, as well as our ability to achieve our strategic business goals and objectives. Our risk categories include: •Insurance Risks - risks associated with assuming, or indemnifying for, the losses or liabilities incurred by policyholders •Operating Risks - risks stemming from external or internal events or circumstances that directly or indirectly may affect our insurance operations •Market Risks - risks that may cause changes in the value of assets held in our investment portfolios •Liquidity Risk - risk that our financial condition will be adversely affected by the inability to meet our short-term cash, collateral, or other financial obligations, and •Credit and Other Financial Risks - risks that the other party to a transaction will fail to perform according to the terms of a contract, or that we will be unable to satisfy our obligations when due or obtain capital when necessary. We have also included an “Other” section in the discussion below to identify risks that do not fit into one of the categories above. Although we have organized risks generally according to these categories in the discussion below, many of the risks may have ramifications in more than one category. For example, although presented as an Operating Risk below, governmental regulation of insurance companies also affects our underwriting, investing, and financing activities, which are addressed separately under Insurance Risks, Market Risks, and Credit and Other Financial Risks below. These categories, therefore, should be viewed as a starting point for understanding the significant risks facing us and not as a limitation on the potential impact of the matters discussed. It also should be noted that our business and that of other insurers may be adversely affected by a downturn in general economic conditions and other forces beyond our control. Issues such as unemployment rates, the number of vehicles sold, technological advances, home ownership trends, inflation or deflation, consumer confidence, and construction spending, among a host of other factors, will have a bearing on the amount of insurance that is purchased by consumers and small businesses and the costs that we incur. Also, to the extent that we have a concentration of business in one or more states or regions of the country, general economic conditions in those states or regions may have a greater impact on our business. We cannot predict whether the risks and uncertainties discussed in this section, or other risks not presently known to us or that we currently believe to be immaterial, may develop into actual events and impact our business. If any one or more of them does so, the events could materially adversely affect our financial condition, cash flows, or results of operations, and the market prices of our equity or debt securities could decline. This information should be considered carefully together with the other information contained in this report and in the other reports and materials filed by us with the SEC, as well as news releases and other information we publicly disseminate from time to time. II. Insurance Risks

We have developed, and used for many years, new technologies, including machine learning, predictive models, algorithms, automated processes, and other forms of traditional artificial intelligence (AI), and will in the future develop and use AI and other new technologies in our business. As with many technological innovations, the growing development and use of generative AI (GenAI) presents additional risks that may adversely affect our business. GenAI might produce or reveal datasets that are flawed or insufficient or contain biased information, which could result in unintentionally and unfairly discriminatory outcomes in our business processes. These deficiencies could also undermine the associated predictions, analysis, or decisions GenAI applications produce or the business decisions we make based on this information. We could face challenges on whether we use GenAI in our business processes in a responsible, compliant, and effective manner. Since GenAI is subject to public debate, and depending on how observers view our development and use of GenAI, we could be subject to criticism or experience an adverse impact on our brand or reputation, which could decrease demand for our products or services, create difficulties in our ability to recruit and retain employees, negatively impact our stock price, and lead to greater regulatory scrutiny of our businesses. Additionally, one or more of our key vendors may begin to use GenAI in their business in a manner that does not meet existing or rapidly evolving regulatory standards. Furthermore, our competitors or other third parties may be able to incorporate GenAI into their products more quickly, or more successfully, than us. Intellectual property ownership rights, including those associated with related copyrights, GenAI, and other AI outputs, have not been fully interpreted by courts or regulations. Additionally, it is likely that we will be subject to new AI-focused regulations that could impose varied compliance and reporting requirements and challenges that could impact our operations or ability to write business profitably in one or more jurisdictions. For example, the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) has adopted guiding principles on AI, as well as a model bulletin, to inform and articulate general expectations for businesses, professionals, and stakeholders across the insurance industry as they implement AI tools to facilitate operations. Alaska recently adopted the NAIC model bulletin and, while the model bulletin is only effective as adopted by each specific state, we expect these guidelines to be adopted by at least some additional states. In addition, regulators have recently requested information from insurers on their use of algorithms and AI. Colorado issued a first-in-the-nation AI governance regulation for life (and soon auto) insurers related to its SB 169 law, addressing the use of AI models and external consumer data in AI models. The regulation also describes compliance documentation to be submitted to the Colorado Division of Insurance on a regular basis. We cannot predict what other regulatory actions may be taken with regard to AI but any limitations, or any failure or perceived failure by us to comply with any such requirements, could have an adverse impact on our business. Any of these impacts could result in significant operational difficulties, reputational harm, litigation, and adverse actions by regulators, potentially causing customers to refrain from buying insurance from us or other businesses to refrain from doing business with us, which could have a material effect on our business, financial condition, and results of operations. IV. Market Risks