Geopolitical events, including ongoing and escalating conflicts in the Middle East, the continuation of the war in Ukraine, and other global hostilities, could disrupt and potentially impact the business activities of the Sponsor and its service providers and have an adverse effect on the Trust.
On October 7, 2023, militants from Gaza launched a large-scale attack on Israeli towns, resulting in the deaths of civilians and soldiers and the taking of hostages. In response, Israel declared war on Hamas and initiated military operations targeting Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza. The continuing conflict has led to broader regional instability, military escalation, and the responses of global political actors—including sanctions, diplomatic interventions, and military posturing—which has increased volatility in financial markets and may continue to do so. These developments could adversely affect regional and global economic conditions and contribute to fluctuations in the price of gold and, consequently, the price of the Shares. Additional risks include disruptions to global shipping routes, energy markets, and the broader commodities supply chain, all of which could impact the gold market.
Similarly, the war in Ukraine, which began with Russia’s invasion in February 2022, continues to pose geopolitical and economic risks. In response to the invasion, the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) suspended the accreditation of six Russian precious metals refiners on March 7, 2022, although bars produced prior to that date remain accepted as good delivery. Further, the United States, United Kingdom, and European Union have imposed restrictions on the import, purchase, and transfer of Russian-origin gold. These measures include:
- U.S. regulations prohibiting the import of Russian-origin gold as of June 28, 2022;
- U.K. regulations banning the import, acquisition, and delivery of Russian-origin gold after July 21, 2022;
- E.U. regulations prohibiting the import, purchase, or transfer of Russian-origin gold exported after July 22, 2022.
The responses of countries and political bodies to Russia’s actions, the larger overarching tensions, and Ukraine’s military response and the potential for wider conflict may increase financial market volatility generally, have adverse effects on regional and global economic markets, and cause volatility in the price of gold and the price of the Shares. In addition, the conflict in Ukraine, along with global political fallout and implications including sanctions, shipping disruptions, collateral war damage, and a potential expansion of the conflict beyond Ukraine’s borders, could disturb the gold market.
In addition to the risks posed by armed conflict and sanctions, changes in international trade policy, including the imposition of tariffs or other trade barriers, could impact the price of gold and the value of the Shares. The price of gold is subject to fluctuations due to a variety of geopolitical and macroeconomic factors, including changes in trade policy. The imposition of tariffs or other trade barriers by major gold-importing or -exporting countries may disrupt global supply chains, reduce cross-border demand, or increase the cost of gold production. In addition, trade disputes and related policy uncertainty may contribute to increased market volatility, which could affect investor sentiment and the market price of gold. Trade tensions and related policy uncertainty may also lead to currency fluctuations, particularly in the U.S. dollar, which could impact the price of gold as it is typically denominated in U.S. dollars. These developments may positively or negatively impact the price of gold and the value of the Shares.